With the changing dynamics and monsoon season about to start, India has to plan ahead for the future. If we want to be “Atmanirbhar”, we have to be self-sufficient in agriculture, as they have a huge impact on the inflation of India.
I have used the following resources to analyze the GDP vs Inflation vs Annual Rainfall vs Foodgrains Productions vs Central Government:
- GDP Annual Growth % of India: World Bank, Link
- Inflation Rate of India: Microtrends, Link
- Foodgrains Production in India: Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare issued “Pocket Book of Agriculture Statistics 2019”
- Annual Rainfall in India: India Meteorological Department, Ministry of Earth Sciences issues Annual Rainfall and Monthly Rainfall Data of India
In the analysis few assumptions have been made because of following concerns:
- Data till 2018, as Government has not published data for 2019
- The analysis is based on the past results and consideration of COVID19 is not taken since there is not future forecasting done
The observations from analysis:
- Inflation is dependent of the foodgrain production and Central government
- GDP and inflation have a strong relationship
- Annual rainfall doesn’t have a huge impact on foodgrain production, as newer technology and farming incentives have been supporting the farmers in the production.
- Foodgrain production does have an impact on inflation as it affects consumer purchasing power which in return affects the value and farmer’s ability to invest in farming.
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