Story of Indian Economy Affected by Monsoon and Government
With the changing dynamics and monsoon season about to start, India has to plan ahead for the future. If we want to be “Atmanirbhar”, we have to be self-sufficient in agriculture, as they have a huge impact on the inflation of India.
I have used the following resources to analyze the GDP vs Inflation vs Annual Rainfall vs Foodgrains Productions vs Central Government:
- GDP Annual Growth % of India: World Bank, Link
- Inflation Rate of India: Microtrends, Link
- Foodgrains Production in India: Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare issued “Pocket Book of Agriculture Statistics 2019”
- Annual Rainfall in India: India Meteorological Department, Ministry of Earth Sciences issues Annual Rainfall and Monthly Rainfall Data of India
In the analysis few assumptions have been made because of following concerns:
- Data till 2018, as Government has not published data for 2019
- The analysis is based on the past results and consideration of COVID19 is not taken since there is not future forecasting done
The observations from analysis:
- Inflation is dependent of the foodgrain production and Central government
- GDP and inflation have a strong relationship
- Annual rainfall doesn’t have a huge impact on foodgrain production, as newer technology and farming incentives have been supporting the farmers in the production.
- Foodgrain production does have an impact on inflation as it affects consumer purchasing power which in return affects the value and farmer’s ability to invest in farming.
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